Tag Archives: South Africa

Sabvest Capital – H1:26 Results – Post-Period Investments Outshine Results

Share Code: SBP – Market Cap: R5.7bn – Share Price discount to NAV: 10%

Sabvest Capital – Results Note – H1:26 Download

H1:26 Results: Compounding

Sabvest’s Net Asset Value (“NAV”) per share rose +5.2% over six months to 16940cps (FY 25: 16105cps) and +22.0% y/y (H1:25: 13882cps), which is c.+4.7% ahead of our own last published estimate of 16180cps.
Only Amicus and Halewood disappointed, while the rest of the Group’s investments performed well.
Net interest-bearing debt fell to R122m (FY 25: R156.6m) offering balance sheet capacity for the post-period investments & current capital commitments.
Management held the interim dividend held at 40cps (H1:25: 40cps).

Thoughts: Two Major Deals Add to the Shape of NAV

Post-period, ITL agreed to buy the massively synergistic, Swedish Rudholm Group and Sabvest (led by DNI) subscribed for R754m in Frogfoot, Vox and Hypa to gain a foothold in an exciting, fast-growing fibre enterprise.
A strong Rand masked genuine operating progress at ITL and Flowmax, and Apex (28% of the portfolio) and SA Bias (22%) are around half of Group NAV, a concentration management itself flags.

Valuation & Implied Return: Priced Close to Fair Value

We estimate current NAV at 16832cps (previously: 16180cps), against which the share trades at a c.10% discount (previously: 12%), though we have not considered any potential accretion or growth from the two large post-period investments noted above.
Deducting a HoldCo discount of c.12% of NAV (previously: 10%) based on central costs, gives a fair value of 14839cps (previously: 14613cps).
Rolling that forward at our Cost of Equity gives a 12m TP of 17344cps (previously: 17119cps) and an implied price return of c.+15% (previously: +20%), or c.+16% including the c.0.9% dividend yield. The persistent discount in the share price has closed, but from here the return should be led by our expected NAV growth.

Sabvest Capital – Results Note – H1:26 Download

Goldrush Holdings – FY 26 Results Note – Lottery Taking Off, Bingo Under Pressure

Share Code: GRSP – Market Cap: R333m – EV/EBITDA: 4.2x

Goldrush Holdings – Results Note – FY 26Download

Summary of Results: A big write-down, a resilient top line

A R586m non-cash impairment of land-based licences (c.27% of prior carrying value) drove a reported operating loss of R425m and EPS of -715.55cps (FY 25: +137.34cps).
HEPS was a profit of 54.5cps (down 62%, but ahead of our 5cps forecast as we missed on tax but were broadly correct on revenue and operating income); gross gaming revenue held +1% as Online (+22%) and LPMs (+5%) offset Bingo (-6%).
Cash from operations of R287m funded degearing; the RMB preference-share covenants were breached (and condoned).

Thoughts: The land-based reset is now on the page

The impairment puts a number on the structural, online-driven de-rating of marginal land-based licences we flagged at initiation, and management’s candour is a positive.
Online is the quiet highlight with disciplined, organic and cash-generative (active customers rose from 40k to 70k).
Sizekhaya (National Lottery operator) went live on 1 June 2026 and is a key swing factor, though some legal risk still remains.

Updated Forecast and Valuation: Sensitive to assumptions…

We cut our fair value to 1000cps (previously: 1074cps) and our 12m TP to 1171cps (previously: 1260cps) showing a c.57% return, but this is a subjective mid-range selection given our fair value range from 914cps (LTM Relative Value reflecting backwards-looking pressure in FY 26) to 1132cps (segmental DCF SOTP) to >2000cps (NTM with forecast risk + Sizekhaya uplift). Operating & financial leverage accentuate fair value outcomes across our models (see below Bingo comment), but we expect this to lower as the Group degears in coming years.
This slip in fair value is reflective of land-based gambling operational pressure, coupled with the uplift of Sizekhaya Lottery operations going live all combining with a slightly higher current inflation rate & elevated gambling regulatory/tax uncertainty. The operating and financial leverage in Goldrush Holdings & Goldrush Group amplify assumptions such that assuming just a single +100bps higher revenue growth rate for only Bingo lifted our implied fair value by +39%!

Goldrush Holdings – Results Note – FY 26Download

Stor-Age Property REIT Limited – FY 26 Results – Tough UK Market but with Room to Grow

Share Code: SSS – Market Cap: R8.8bn – P/B: 0.9x – DY: 6.6%

Stor-Age Property REIT – Results Note – FY 26Download

Summary of Results: South Africa does the heavy lifting

Stor-Age’s FY 26 landed in line with our forecast as Distributable Earnings rose +8.4% to R642.4m and Distributable Income per Share growing by +5.1% to 129.29cps. Final DPS rose +5.1% to 116.36cps (maintaining the REIT’s 90% payout).
The Group’s balanced sheet remained comfortable, gearing at reasonable-to-low levels (Loan-to-Value or LTV at 27.1%, or at 30.3% on a Look-through basis including JV’s), and the NAV per share growing at +3.7% to 1767cps.
Digging deeper, the Group’s South African segment carried the result with its rental income growing +10.5%, net property operating income +11.1%, and same-store rate +8.6%).
UK segment lagged with GBP rental income growth of only +1.1% eaten by operating costs growing +4.5% resulting in Net Property Operating Income slipping -0.8%.

Thoughts: UK Should See Better FY 27E

Despite the UK miss above, we think that FY 26 was a quality results in a two-speed year with a tougher H2:26.
There will be new UK leadership from October 2026 that has sparked an operational review here and should see efficiencies and pricing gains (probably really annualising from H2:27E).
AI-driven efficiencies should help medium-term UK margins while AI-pricing transparency in the UK could help the Group’s SA operations (many local operators may not have the AI know-how that the Group is gaining in the competitive UK market).
Finally, we will be watching some financing rolls where low-struck hedges (70% of net debt, ~1.3-year average expiry) roll off and potentially reprice higher during FY 27E.

Updated Forecast and Valuation: Double-digit Implied Total Return

We update our fair value based on our blended fair value of 1812cps (previously 1850cps) and a 12m TP of 1908cps (previously 1970cps).
With the share at 1715cps (it has de-rated since the R500m December raise), the implied 12m total return improves to 18% (previously 16%) — about 11% price return plus a 7.1% Forward Yield.

Stor-Age Share Price relative to Self-Storage Peers:

Stor-Age Property REIT – Results Note – FY 26Download

Santova Ltd – FY 26 Results Note – Seabourne Acquisition Delivering

Share Code: SNV – Market Cap: R991m – PE: 7.3x – DY: 0.0%

Santova – Results Note – FY 26Download

Summary of Results: Delivering through a tough period

During FY 26, Santova acquired Seabourne (consolidated for 9m in this period) for R400m, including a cumulative profit warranty over two years.
Overall, the Group performed slightly better than our forecast with FY 26 revenue growing +88% y/y, and HEPS slightly down at 107cps (FY 25: 115cps); importantly, Seabourne exceeded our expectations.
Group margins have declined, but this is due to Seabourne’s consolidation.
Group balance sheet remains comfortably net cash, even after we deduct interest-bearing borrowings and Seabourne’s profit warranty debt.

Thoughts: Geographic Diversification building resilience

Given Seabourne’s early signs of success, we believe that management’s acquisitive track record remains intact. Likewise, given Seabourne’s relative size to the Group (more than two times the cumulative business acquisitions of the prior ten years), the importance of this acquisitive success cannot be emphasised enough.
Geographical profit mix remains ever volatile, but—whilst hard to model—we do consider this as one of the strengths of the business model: diversification. The “portfolio effect” of this diversification has seen overall (long-term) profits steadily growing which we expect to continue.

Updated Forecast and Valuation: Remains below fair value

We expect revenue in FY 27E to be more than double FY 25 revenue (largely driven by Seabourne’s full consolidation during the year), with profit growing to R169m from R148m in FY 25 (+23% y/y versus FY 26).
FY 26’s ROE has declined in line with Seabourne entering the balance sheet (but not being fully consolidated), & lower profit margins but (through the cycle it) is still beating Cost of Equity comfortably; FY 26 ROE was 11%, which we expect to steadily start rising from FY 27E.
Our DCF arrives at an implied fair value of R10.32 per share (previously: R9.72), which compares attractively against the current share price of R7.70, and would place the share on a Price Earnings of 9.6x and Price-to-Book of fractionally over 1.0x. This implies a 12m TP of R11.48 (previously: R10.32).

Santova – Results Note – FY 26Download

Stor-Age Property REIT Limited – 1H 26 Results – Still Steady with Growth Ahead

Share Code: SSS – Market Cap: R8.7bn – P/B: 1.0x – DY: 6.3%

Stor-Age – 1H 26 – Results NoteDownload

1H 26 Results: Well Run, Well Positioned & Globally Competitive

Stor-Age REIT owns a well-managed, growing self-storage property portfolio that was built out of a strong SA base (that remains robust & growing) & is increasingly allocating capital towards the UK (offering Rand Hedge benefits) while cleverly leveraging the capital-light JV structures to build what could become a substantial portfolio.
The Group’s 1H 26 rental income growth has been strong (+6% annualised) & has historically outpaced inflation; occupancies remain high in owned properties. 1H 26 EBITDA and NPOP grew by 5% and 6% respectively, with distributable earnings increasing by 8% with stable profit margins.
From FY 25, the Group adjusted its distribution payout ratio from 100% to 90% of distributable income—retaining some capital for growth.
1H 26’s Net Asset Value (NAV) per share increased by 2% (annualised).
The Group remains comfortably geared, though comparable international peers do have somewhat lower average gearing.
Stor-Age’s Total Return (in Rands) has outperformed all listed global self-storage companies over 3, 5, & 10 years.

Stor-Age – Total Return of Listed Self-Storage REITs

Source: Koyfin (18/11/2025)

Valuation and 12m TP: Relative Model & Dividend Discount Model

Stor-Age’s share price has fallen behind its NAV growth, leading to a Price/Book (“PB”) ratio range of 0.8~0.9x (to 1H 26). The Group’s quality, its potential for Rand Hedge benefits from its UK portfolio, optionality from organic and acquisitive growth, and the fact that the properties are fairly valued (on quite reasonable assumptions), informs our view that the share should (at least) track its historic 1.0x PB over time, if not at a premium to book. The share currently has a PB fractionally higher than 1.0x, having strongly re-rated over the last six months.

Stor-Age – Price/Book (x) History

Source: Koyfin (18/11/2025)

We have updated our Relative Valuation Model and Dividend Discount Models to arrive at an equal-weighted average valuation of R18.50 per share (FY 25: R16.71).
Rolling this fair value forward at our Cost of Equity, we arrive at a 12m Target Price—factoring in dividends—of R19.70 (Previously: R17.80); we expect this to generate a 12m (total) return of c.16%.
The Group’s next five-year plan (FY 26 to FY 30) sees a 50% growth in number of properties (SA and UK combined) & could drive a re-rating in the Group’s listed size (it is currently a small cap) that could support increasing institutional appetite as self-storage remains an attractive growth market in both SA and the UK and a sought-after property class. See the Group’s recent oversubscribed bookbuild as evidence of this.

Stor-Age – 1H 26 – Results NoteDownload

Astoria Investments Ltd – Q3:25 Results Note – Probable Delisting

Share Code: ARA – Market Cap: R506m – Discount to Offer: c.9%

Astoria Investments – Q3:25 – Results NoteDownload

Q3:25 Results: Not the big news…

Astoria reported Q3:25 results with NAV in USD growing +3% to $0.64 per share and decreasing 6% in ZAR to 1099cps.
After prior and current period realisations of ISA Carstens and Outdoor Investment Holdings (OIH), NAV now c.31% cash.

Commentary: The big news – Proposed delisting (& unbundling)

Astoria has proposed a repurchase offer, proposed delisting (off the JSE and SEM) and the unbundling Goldrush:
- The share repurchase offer is priced at 815cps, limited to a maximum of 42.5% of shares, and is conditional on a range of items, most notably the resolution to approve delisting Astoria from the JSE and SEM exchanges.
- In the event of the delisting being approved, Astoria will also unbundle 7.5m Goldrush preference shares (12 GRSP shares for every 100 Astoria shares held) or c.83cps of value (before the SENS announcement) or c.72cps of value as of the date of this note (based on GRSP’s share price).
Irrevocable undertakings have been made to vote in favour of all resolutions (59.33% disinterested vote) and not to accept the repurchase offer (57.81% will go “private” with the company’s delisting, i.e. 42.19% of shares are left to accept the cash portion of the share repurchase before the delisting).
Given the irrevocables, the pricing of the offer (in line with our ‘fair value’ without a control premium given that control is not changing in this repurchase) and, thus, the likelihood of a positive fairness opinion, we believe it is probable that Astoria’s repurchase, unbundling and delisting will proceed.

Valuation, 12m TP & Implied Return: Delisting Price

Given the pricing of the transaction to delist and the probability of its approval, we update our fair value and 12m TP to the transaction price of 887cps or c.9% higher than the share price.
Interestingly, this essentially lines up with our Sum-of-the-Parts fair value for Astoria of c.905cps after a 17% HoldCo discount (previously: 16.3%).

Astoria Investments – Q3:25 – Results NoteDownload

Sabvest Capital – H1:25 Results – Apex Drives NAV Growth

Share Code: SBP – Market Cap: R3.6bn – Share Price discount to NAV: 31%

Sabvest Capital – Results Note – H1:25Download

H1:25 Results: Share buy-backs enhance growth

Sabvest’s Net Asset Value (NAV) grew +15% y/y versus H1:24 (or +3% versus FY 24), which, when combined with further accretive share buy-backs, saw NAV per share grow +5% to 13882cps (FY 24: 13213cps).
H1:25 share buybacks amounted to R69.3m (FY 24: R59.9m), or 735,000 SBP shares at a VWAP of c.9429cps (well below NAV and wonderfully accretive).
Importantly, valuation multiples were kept flat during the period, thus providing NAV growth of good quality.
Strong growth in Apex Partners and continued momentum in the recovery in ITL Holdings more than offset some disappointing performance in Amicus, Narrowtex (part of SA Bias), and Halewood SA.
The dividend was hiked +14% to 40cps (H1:24 – 35cps).

Thoughts: Momentum in H2:25E could rise

We expect continued growth from Apex (particularly as it unlocks value from DRA), and we expect ITL Holdings’ and Valemount’s respective performances to pick up momentum through the remaining year.
We also expect near-term recoveries in both Amicus (likely) & SA Bias’ Flowmax (likely) with a medium-term upside in Valemount (probable) & Halewood (possible).
Overall, though, we expect a good H2:25E performance from the Group’s businesses and their resulting investment values in Sabvest’s H2:25E NAV.

Valuation, 12m TP & Implied Return: Discounted

We estimate that the share is currently trading at a c.31% discount to its current 13704cps NAV and—after including a HoldCo discount against this NAV of 10% (unchanged)—we believe that the share’s fair value is around 12334cps (previously: 11798cps).
Rolling our post-discount fair value forward, we see the Group’s 12m TP as 14540cps (previously: 14017cps) with an implied return of +53% from these levels.

Sabvest Capital – Results Note – H1:25Download

Astoria Investments Ltd – H1:25 Results Note – Lots of Dry Powder on Hand

Share Code: ARA – Market Cap: R490m – Discount to NAV: c.28%

Astoria Investments – H1:25 – Results NoteDownload

H1:25 Results: Beyond Diamonds

Group NAV slipped -3.5% to $59.85 per share (FY 24: $61.99) or down -9% to 1065cps (FY 24: 1171cps) as the continued diamond bear market took the diamond investments from a c.113cps contribution to Group NAV (end of FY 24) to zero.
If the c.113cps diamond investments are reversed from FY 24’s NAV, the Group’s NAV would have grown slightly (+3% p/p).
Beyond diamonds, positive developments include a clean exit from ISA Carstens, strong performances from Leatt Corp and Goldrush, and OIH’s exit from A-Tec. Following the period, OIH repurchased some of Astoria’s shares for R105m in cash.

Commentary: Capital Allocation Options

Given all the realisations during (and post) the H1:25 period, the Group is currently quite cash flush, and where management allocates this capital will be pivotal in future NAV.
Perhaps illustrative of management’s capital allocation intentions is that one of these realisations lowered the Group’s significant exposure to OIH (i.e. dropping portfolio concentration) and another was CFD’s in Astoria’s own share.

Valuation, 12m TP & Implied Return: More than Priced In

We estimate that Astoria’s share is trading at c.28% discount to NAV (Previously: 36%), which includes the partial realisation of OIH, the cash receipt from ISA Carstens and Leatt Corp and Goldrush’s latest share prices (and exchange rates). Cash (& cash equivalent) now forms c.24% of the Group’s NAV.
With c.24% of Astoria’s NAV is net cash, the market is basically paying book value for the Group’s investments and offering investors this net cash for “free”.
If we take out our calculated “HoldCo discount” of c.16.3% (15.9%), we arrive at a fair value for Astoria’s shares of c.913cps (Previously: 858cps) or c.16% higher than the share price.

Rolling this fair value forward at our Cost of Equity, we arrive at a 12m TP of c.1076cps (Previously: 1020cps) that implies a potential return of c.36% from the current share price.

Astoria Investments – H1:25 – Results NoteDownload

Stor-Age Property REIT Limited – FY 25 Results – Steady Performance

Share Code: SSS – Market Cap: R7.5bn – P/B: 0.9x – DY: 7%

Stor-Age REIT – FY 25 – Results NoteDownload

FY 25 Results & Thoughts: Well Run, Well Positioned & Globally Competitive

Stor-Age owns a well-managed, growing self-storage property portfolio that was built out of a strong SA-base (that remains robust and growing) and is increasingly allocating capital towards the UK (offering Rand Hedge benefits) while cleverly leveraging the capital-light policy of JV funding structures to build out what will likely become a substantial portfolio.
FY 25 rental income growth has been strong, historically outpacing inflation; SA achieving +10.2% and the UK +6.5% in the period. FY 25 occupancies remain high in owned properties—exceeding 90% in South Africa and around 84% in the UK—while JV properties are still in their lease-up period with occupancies around 74% in SA (FY24: 65%) and 63% in the UK (FY24: 57%).
The Group’s Net Property Operating Income (NPOI) margin has consistently been around 74% since FY19. A 65% EBITDA margin remains strong and underpinned by solid cash flows with a history of distributing nearly all distributable earnings as dividends. The Group did recently shift its distribution policy from 100% to 90~95% of distributable income—retaining some capital for growth—thus, FY 25’s payout ratio is 90%.
Distributable income rose 4% in FY25 and management has indicated a 5% to 6% expected increase for FY26, which we think may prove to be slightly conservative (our forecast is fractionally above the high-end of this range).
Net Asset Value (NAV) per share increased by 5.6% in FY25 (c. 7% per year for the past four years). We note that the Rand/Pound exchange rate has been very stable over the past two financial years. Theoretically, the Rand should depreciate against the Pound by the annual inflation differential. Should this revert to the theory, there will be upside when and as the Pound assets and earnings are converted to Rand earnings & distributions.
We consider the Group’s balance sheet comfortably/lowly geared though comparable international peers do have somewhat lower average gearing.

Valuation and 12m TP: Relative Model and Dividend Discount Model Used

Stor-Age’s share price has not kept pace with its NAV growth, leading to a Price/Book (“PB”) ratio of 0.8-0.9x. The Group’s quality, its potential for both Rand Hedge benefits from its UK portfolio, optionality from organic and acquisitive growth informs our view that the share should (at least) track its historic 1.0x PB over time.

Stor-Age’s share price has not kept pace with its NAV growth, leading to a Price/Book (“PB”) ratio of 0.8~0.9x. The Group’s quality, its potential for both Rand Hedge benefits from its UK portfolio, optionality from organic and acquisitive growth informs our view that the share should (at least) track its historic 1.0x PB over time.
We determined the fair value for Stor-Age by using a Relative Valuation Model and a Dividend Discount Model (31 March 2025):
- Relative Value: Our fair value is R16.71 per share,
- Dividend Discount Model: Our fair value is R16.71 per share, &
- Equal-weighted average valuation: R16.71 per share.
Rolling this fair value forward, we arrive at a 12m Target Price—factoring in dividends—of R17.80 (Previously: R17.10); we expect this to generate a 12m return of c.19% at the 30 June 2025 share price of R15.95.

Stor-Age REIT – FY 25 – Results NoteDownload

Astoria Investments Ltd – Results Note – Rough in the Diamond

Share Code: ARA – Market Cap: R418m – Discount to NAV: c.35% (c.32% assuming Diamond investments worth zero)

Astoria Investments – Q1:25 – Results NoteDownload

Q1:25 Results: Diamond Valuations Written Down

While Q1 and Q3 results from Astoria are often more administrative (unlisted valuations are usually only updated at Q2 and Q4 period ends), this quarter saw continued pressure on diamond prices and management have prudently written the Marine Diamond valuation to nil and impaired the Trans Hex (i.e. Land Diamond) valuation by 55% to $1.2m.
This resulted in the Group’s NAV dropping by -6% in USD & -9% in ZAR (the Rand also strengthened over this quarter or, more accurately, the US Dollar weakened) when compared to the prior quarter (31 December 2024).

Commentary: Gone but Not Nil

Despite a zero value, the Marine business continues to operate and can be considered a “nil value option” in Astoria’s NAV.
Consensus in the diamond market appears to expect a modest recovery in rough diamond prices (mid-single digits) around late 2025. This recovery is dependent on supply chain efficiencies, marketing effectiveness, and economic stability.
Likewise, consensus appears bearish on a full return to pre-pandemic due to the prevalence of lab-grown diamonds.

Idex Diamond Index – 5-year Spot Chart