Share Code: GRSP – Market Cap: R333m – EV/EBITDA: 4.2x

Summary of Results: A big write-down, a resilient top line

• A R586m non-cash impairment of land-based licences (c.27% of prior carrying value) drove a reported operating loss of R425m and EPS of -715.55cps (FY 25: +137.34cps).
• HEPS was a profit of 54.5cps (down 62%, but ahead of our 5cps forecast as we missed on tax but were broadly correct on revenue and operating income); gross gaming revenue held +1% as Online (+22%) and LPMs (+5%) offset Bingo (-6%).
• Cash from operations of R287m funded degearing; the RMB preference-share covenants were breached (and condoned).

Thoughts: The land-based reset is now on the page

• The impairment puts a number on the structural, online-driven de-rating of marginal land-based licences we flagged at initiation, and management’s candour is a positive.
• Online is the quiet highlight with disciplined, organic and cash-generative (active customers rose from 40k to 70k).
• Sizekhaya (National Lottery operator) went live on 1 June 2026 and is a key swing factor, though some legal risk still remains.

Updated Forecast and Valuation: Sensitive to assumptions…

• We cut our fair value to 1000cps (previously: 1074cps) and our 12m TP to 1171cps (previously: 1260cps) showing a c.57% return, but this is a subjective mid-range selection given our fair value range from 914cps (LTM Relative Value reflecting backwards-looking pressure in FY 26) to 1132cps (segmental DCF SOTP) to >2000cps (NTM with forecast risk + Sizekhaya uplift). Operating & financial leverage accentuate fair value outcomes across our models (see below Bingo comment), but we expect this to lower as the Group degears in coming years.
• This slip in fair value is reflective of land-based gambling operational pressure, coupled with the uplift of Sizekhaya Lottery operations going live all combining with a slightly higher current inflation rate & elevated gambling regulatory/tax uncertainty. The operating and financial leverage in Goldrush Holdings & Goldrush Group amplify assumptions such that assuming just a single +100bps higher revenue growth rate for only Bingo lifted our implied fair value by +39%!