Sabvest Capital – H1:26 Results – Post-Period Investments Outshine Results

Share Code: SBP – Market Cap: R5.7bn – Share Price discount to NAV: 10%

Sabvest Capital – Results Note – H1:26Download

H1:26 Results: Compounding

  • Sabvest’s Net Asset Value (“NAV”) per share rose +5.2% over six months to 16940cps (FY 25: 16105cps) and +22.0% y/y (H1:25: 13882cps), which is c.+4.7% ahead of our own last published estimate of 16180cps.
  • Only Amicus and Halewood disappointed, while the rest of the Group’s investments performed well.
  • Net interest-bearing debt fell to R122m (FY 25: R156.6m) offering balance sheet capacity for the post-period investments & current capital commitments.
  • Management held the interim dividend held at 40cps (H1:25: 40cps).

Thoughts: Two Major Deals Add to the Shape of NAV

  • Post-period, ITL agreed to buy the massively synergistic, Swedish Rudholm Group and Sabvest (led by DNI) subscribed for R754m in Frogfoot, Vox and Hypa to gain a foothold in an exciting, fast-growing fibre enterprise.
  • A strong Rand masked genuine operating progress at ITL and Flowmax, and Apex (28% of the portfolio) and SA Bias (22%) are around half of Group NAV, a concentration management itself flags.

Valuation & Implied Return: Priced Close to Fair Value

  • We estimate current NAV at 16832cps (previously: 16180cps), against which the share trades at a c.10% discount (previously: 12%), though we have not considered any potential accretion or growth from the two large post-period investments noted above.
  • Deducting a HoldCo discount of c.12% of NAV (previously: 10%) based on central costs, gives a fair value of 14839cps (previously: 14613cps).
  • Rolling that forward at our Cost of Equity gives a 12m TP of 17344cps (previously: 17119cps) and an implied price return of c.+15% (previously: +20%), or c.+16% including the c.0.9% dividend yield. The persistent discount in the share price has closed, but from here the return should be led by our expected NAV growth.
Sabvest Capital – Results Note – H1:26Download

Goldrush Holdings – FY 26 Results Note – Lottery Taking Off, Bingo Under Pressure

Share Code: GRSP – Market Cap: R333m – EV/EBITDA: 4.2x

Goldrush Holdings – Results Note – FY 26Download

Summary of Results: A big write-down, a resilient top line

  • A R586m non-cash impairment of land-based licences (c.27% of prior carrying value) drove a reported operating loss of R425m and EPS of -715.55cps (FY 25: +137.34cps).
  • HEPS was a profit of 54.5cps (down 62%, but ahead of our 5cps forecast as we missed on tax but were broadly correct on revenue and operating income); gross gaming revenue held +1% as Online (+22%) and LPMs (+5%) offset Bingo (-6%).
  • Cash from operations of R287m funded degearing; the RMB preference-share covenants were breached (and condoned).

Thoughts: The land-based reset is now on the page

  • The impairment puts a number on the structural, online-driven de-rating of marginal land-based licences we flagged at initiation, and management’s candour is a positive.
  • Online is the quiet highlight with disciplined, organic and cash-generative (active customers rose from 40k to 70k).
  • Sizekhaya (National Lottery operator) went live on 1 June 2026 and is a key swing factor, though some legal risk still remains.

Updated Forecast and Valuation: Sensitive to assumptions…

  • We cut our fair value to 1000cps (previously: 1074cps) and our 12m TP to 1171cps (previously: 1260cps) showing a c.57% return, but this is a subjective mid-range selection given our fair value range from 914cps (LTM Relative Value reflecting backwards-looking pressure in FY 26) to 1132cps (segmental DCF SOTP) to >2000cps (NTM with forecast risk + Sizekhaya uplift). Operating & financial leverage accentuate fair value outcomes across our models (see below Bingo comment), but we expect this to lower as the Group degears in coming years.
  • This slip in fair value is reflective of land-based gambling operational pressure, coupled with the uplift of Sizekhaya Lottery operations going live all combining with a slightly higher current inflation rate & elevated gambling regulatory/tax uncertainty. The operating and financial leverage in Goldrush Holdings & Goldrush Group amplify assumptions such that assuming just a single +100bps higher revenue growth rate for only Bingo lifted our implied fair value by +39%!
Goldrush Holdings – Results Note – FY 26Download

Stor-Age Property REIT Limited – FY 26 Results – Tough UK Market but with Room to Grow

Share Code: SSS – Market Cap: R8.8bn – P/B: 0.9x – DY: 6.6%

Stor-Age Property REIT – Results Note – FY 26Download

Summary of Results: South Africa does the heavy lifting

  • Stor-Age’s FY 26 landed in line with our forecast as Distributable Earnings rose +8.4% to R642.4m and Distributable Income per Share growing by +5.1% to 129.29cps. Final DPS rose +5.1% to 116.36cps (maintaining the REIT’s 90% payout).
  • The Group’s balanced sheet remained comfortable, gearing at reasonable-to-low levels (Loan-to-Value or LTV at 27.1%, or at 30.3% on a Look-through basis including JV’s), and the NAV per share growing at +3.7% to 1767cps.
  • Digging deeper, the Group’s South African segment carried the result with its rental income growing +10.5%, net property operating income +11.1%, and same-store rate +8.6%).
  • UK segment lagged with GBP rental income growth of only +1.1% eaten by operating costs growing +4.5% resulting in Net Property Operating Income slipping -0.8%.

Thoughts: UK Should See Better FY 27E

  • Despite the UK miss above, we think that FY 26 was a quality results in a two-speed year with a tougher H2:26.
  • There will be new UK leadership from October 2026 that has sparked an operational review here and should see efficiencies and pricing gains (probably really annualising from H2:27E).
  • AI-driven efficiencies should help medium-term UK margins while AI-pricing transparency in the UK could help the Group’s SA operations (many local operators may not have the AI know-how that the Group is gaining in the competitive UK market).
  • Finally, we will be watching some financing rolls where low-struck hedges (70% of net debt, ~1.3-year average expiry) roll off and potentially reprice higher during FY 27E.

Updated Forecast and Valuation: Double-digit Implied Total Return

  • We update our fair value based on our blended fair value of 1812cps (previously 1850cps) and a 12m TP of 1908cps (previously 1970cps).
  • With the share at 1715cps (it has de-rated since the R500m December raise), the implied 12m total return improves to 18% (previously 16%) — about 11% price return plus a 7.1% Forward Yield.

Stor-Age Share Price relative to Self-Storage Peers:

Stor-Age Property REIT – Results Note – FY 26Download

Santova Ltd – FY 26 Results Note – Seabourne Acquisition Delivering

Share Code: SNV – Market Cap: R991m – PE: 7.3x – DY: 0.0%

Santova – Results Note – FY 26Download

Summary of Results: Delivering through a tough period

  • During FY 26, Santova acquired Seabourne (consolidated for 9m in this period) for R400m, including a cumulative profit warranty over two years.
  • Overall, the Group performed slightly better than our forecast with FY 26 revenue growing +88% y/y, and HEPS slightly down at 107cps (FY 25: 115cps); importantly, Seabourne exceeded our expectations.
  • Group margins have declined, but this is due to Seabourne’s consolidation.
  • Group balance sheet remains comfortably net cash, even after we deduct interest-bearing borrowings and Seabourne’s profit warranty debt.

Thoughts: Geographic Diversification building resilience

  • Given Seabourne’s early signs of success, we believe that management’s acquisitive track record remains intact. Likewise, given Seabourne’s relative size to the Group (more than two times the cumulative business acquisitions of the prior ten years), the importance of this acquisitive success cannot be emphasised enough.
  • Geographical profit mix remains ever volatile, but—whilst hard to model—we do consider this as one of the strengths of the business model: diversification. The “portfolio effect” of this diversification has seen overall (long-term) profits steadily growing which we expect to continue.

Updated Forecast and Valuation: Remains below fair value

  • We expect revenue in FY 27E to be more than double FY 25 revenue (largely driven by Seabourne’s full consolidation during the year), with profit growing to R169m from R148m in FY 25 (+23% y/y versus FY 26).
  • FY 26’s ROE has declined in line with Seabourne entering the balance sheet (but not being fully consolidated), & lower profit margins but (through the cycle it) is still beating Cost of Equity comfortably; FY 26 ROE was 11%, which we expect to steadily start rising from FY 27E.
  • Our DCF arrives at an implied fair value of R10.32 per share (previously: R9.72), which compares attractively against the current share price of R7.70, and would place the share on a Price Earnings of 9.6x and Price-to-Book of fractionally over 1.0x. This implies a 12m TP of R11.48 (previously: R10.32).
Santova – Results Note – FY 26Download

Goldrush Holdings – Initiation of Coverage – Win the Lottery

Share Code: GRSP – Market Cap: R272m – EV/EBITDA: 4.1x

Goldrush Holdings (Preference Shares) – Initiation of CoverageDownload

Business Overview: Good mix of mature & growing operations

  • Goldrush Holdings (code: GRSP) is a well-run non-casino gambling operation listed on the JSE with material Bingo, Limited Payout Machine (LPM), Sports Betting (offline and online) operations all at various stages of growth, maturity and profitability.
  • More recently, Goldrush holds a significant stake in the operator (from 1 June 2026) of the South African National Lottery for the next eight years (Sizekhaya) – we see particular value in this investment and, indeed, the market appears to have not priced this into Goldrush’s share price.

South African Gambling Sector: Changes, uncertainty, unknowns…

  • Consumer trends in the gambling market have steadily shifted GGR towards more convenient gambling products; initially moving share from land-based casinos towards distributed LPMs and, more recently, shifting towards online gambling products.
  • Lagging these consumer trends, the gambling sector regulation and tax regimes are likely to change in South Africa, with a range of possible outcomes that introduce both risk (and some opportunity) into the sector’s prospects.
  • Irrespective of these changes, there is a steady deterioration in the economics of high fixed-cost casinos. Following consumer trends shifting share to more convenient gambling products, the market values groups with larger exposures in LPMs, bingo and online gambling higher than the operators of traditional casinos.

Forecast, Valuation and Implied Return: Sizekhaya not priced in

  • Having built a segmental-level driven DCF that we have then consolidated upwards (taking minorities & net debt out along the way), we arrive at a fair value of c.1074cps for Goldrush’s preference shares (after taking out a 20% discount for their lack of voting rights). Rolling this forward, we arrive at a 12m TP of 1260cps implying a c.110% return from these levels.
  • If we assume Sizekhaya is worth zero, our fair value drops to c.586cps or almost in line with the share price, implying that the market has not yet priced in Sizekhaya. In other words, you can pay fair value for Goldrush’s operations and are (nearly) guaranteed to win the lottery!
Goldrush Holdings (Preference Shares) – Initiation of CoverageDownload

Sabvest Capital – FY 25 Results – Strong Growth, More to Come

Share Code: SBP – Market Cap: R6bn – Share Price discount to NAV: 12%

Sabvest Capital – FY 25 – Results NoteDownload

FY 25 Results: Excellent Growth

  • Sabvest reported excellent growth (+22% y/y) in its Net Asset Value (NAV) per share to 16105cps (FY 24: 13213cps), predominantly driven by Apex Partners’ tripling in value during the period (Apex took control of &, thus, started consolidating in DRA during the year).
  • The Group hiked its dividend accordingly by +28% to 130cps (FY 24: 105cps), and its balance sheet is largely ungeared with good capacity for future investments.

Thoughts: Momentum Likely to Continue

  • Most of Sabvest’s businesses have clearly positive prospects, with some more neutral, and only Halewood potentially showing structural weakness (declines in the global alcoholic beverage market persist).
  • FY 26E should see Apex consolidate DRA Global for a full twelve months, implying upside in its FY 26E fair value.
  • ITL Holdings and SA Bias’s Flowmax are well-positioned to grow (organically and/or acquisitively) while Amicus should benefit from its Global Grinder merger in due course. At the same time, Masimong’s Seriti should reap a material windfall from higher energy/thermal coal prices following the USA-Iran war.
  • The obvious risk to our view is a prolonged disruption to the global economy caused by the USA-Iran war.

Valuation & Implied Return: Starting to Reflect Value

  • We estimate that the share is currently trading at a discount to its current 16180cps NAV and—after including a HoldCo discount against this NAV of 10% (unchanged)—we believe that the share’s fair value is around 14613cps (previously: 12334cps).
  • Rolling our post-discount fair value forward, we see the Group’s 12m TP as 17119cps (previously: 14540cps) with an implied return of +20% from these levels.
Sabvest Capital – FY 25 – Results NoteDownload

Santova Limited – Initiation of Coverage – Great Track Record & Exciting Future

Share Code: JSE: SNV – Market Cap: R900m – PE: 6.7x – DY: 2.5%

Santova – Initiation of Coverage – 23 February 2026Download

Business Overview: Global Track Record

  • Listed on the JSE, Santova is a global technology-based trade solutions specialist providing innovative international end-to-end supply chain solutions. The Group operates primarily as a Fourth-Party Logistics (“4PL”) provider from 33 offices in 13 countries (& growing), whereby the Group manages the (increasingly) complex logistical needs of clients globally.
  • The Group has grown organically and through 13 business acquisitions, with the quality of their acquisitive execution evidenced by the fact that only two of these acquisitions resulted in quite minor goodwill impairments.
  • Related to this point and, more recently, in May 2025, the Group acquired Seabourne (England, France, Scotland and Netherlands), which should see the Group double revenue in FY 27E (the first year of full consolidation).

Key Upsides & Downsides: A Longer-term View Smooths the Volatility

  • In the short-term, Santova’s regional revenues and profits can be volatile from period to period (via volumes, freight rates and/or foreign exchange). However—when we look beyond short-term volatility—Santova has a strong track record of increasing earnings over the long term. Thus, we believe that the Group’s performance is best evaluated over five- or ten-year periods, smoothing potentially misleading short-term volatility.
  • A shareholder would have achieved a c.10% p.a. CAGR Total Return (TR) over the decade to FY 25. However, we believe the share price is currently undervalued, which deflates TR. Furthermore, we believe that the current share price does not reflect the potential of Seabourne, and there is substantial upside from the current price (10-year TR < Next 10-year TR).
  • Seabourne’s delivery on its profit warranty and exchange rates are likely to be the largest determinants of profits in the short- to medium-term.

Forecast, Valuation and Implied Return: Share Undervalued

  • Our Group forecast is built from forecasting Santova and Seabourne, respectively, using historic margins, and assuming a conservative 3% real growth rate along with some other simplifying assumptions (flat FX).
  • Using a DCF, we arrive at an implied fair value of R9.70, implying c.28% upside to the share price of R6.95. When considering global peers’ valuations and M&A multiples of the past two years, we believe there to be >60% potential upside which could crystallise in a range of ways over time.
Santova – Initiation of Coverage – 23 February 2026Download

Stor-Age Property REIT Limited – 1H 26 Results – Still Steady with Growth Ahead

Share Code: SSS – Market Cap: R8.7bn – P/B: 1.0x – DY: 6.3%

Stor-Age – 1H 26 – Results NoteDownload

1H 26 Results: Well Run, Well Positioned & Globally Competitive

  • Stor-Age REIT owns a well-managed, growing self-storage property portfolio that was built out of a strong SA base (that remains robust & growing) & is increasingly allocating capital towards the UK (offering Rand Hedge benefits) while cleverly leveraging the capital-light JV structures to build what could become a substantial portfolio.
  • The Group’s 1H 26 rental income growth has been strong (+6% annualised) & has historically outpaced inflation; occupancies remain high in owned properties. 1H 26 EBITDA and NPOP grew by 5% and 6% respectively, with distributable earnings increasing by 8% with stable profit margins.
  • From FY 25, the Group adjusted its distribution payout ratio from 100% to 90% of distributable income—retaining some capital for growth.
  • 1H 26’s Net Asset Value (NAV) per share increased by 2% (annualised).
  • The Group remains comfortably geared, though comparable international peers do have somewhat lower average gearing.
  • Stor-Age’s Total Return (in Rands) has outperformed all listed global self-storage companies over 3, 5, & 10 years.

Stor-Age – Total Return of Listed Self-Storage REITs

Source: Koyfin (18/11/2025)

Valuation and 12m TP: Relative Model & Dividend Discount Model

  • Stor-Age’s share price has fallen behind its NAV growth, leading to a Price/Book (“PB”) ratio range of 0.8~0.9x (to 1H 26). The Group’s quality, its potential for Rand Hedge benefits from its UK portfolio, optionality from organic and acquisitive growth, and the fact that the properties are fairly valued (on quite reasonable assumptions), informs our view that the share should (at least) track its historic 1.0x PB over time, if not at a premium to book. The share currently has a PB fractionally higher than 1.0x, having strongly re-rated over the last six months.

Stor-Age – Price/Book (x) History

Source: Koyfin (18/11/2025)

  • We have updated our Relative Valuation Model and Dividend Discount Models to arrive at an equal-weighted average valuation of R18.50 per share (FY 25: R16.71).
  • Rolling this fair value forward at our Cost of Equity, we arrive at a 12m Target Price—factoring in dividends—of R19.70 (Previously: R17.80); we expect this to generate a 12m (total) return of c.16%.
  • The Group’s next five-year plan (FY 26 to FY 30) sees a 50% growth in number of properties (SA and UK combined) & could drive a re-rating in the Group’s listed size (it is currently a small cap) that could support increasing institutional appetite as self-storage remains an attractive growth market in both SA and the UK and a sought-after property class. See the Group’s recent oversubscribed bookbuild as evidence of this.
Stor-Age – 1H 26 – Results NoteDownload

Astoria Investments Ltd – Q3:25 Results Note – Probable Delisting

Share Code: ARA – Market Cap: R506m – Discount to Offer: c.9%

Astoria Investments – Q3:25 – Results NoteDownload

Q3:25 Results: Not the big news…

  • Astoria reported Q3:25 results with NAV in USD growing +3% to $0.64 per share and decreasing 6% in ZAR to 1099cps.
  • After prior and current period realisations of ISA Carstens and Outdoor Investment Holdings (OIH), NAV now c.31% cash.

Commentary: The big news – Proposed delisting (& unbundling)

  • Astoria has proposed a repurchase offer, proposed delisting (off the JSE and SEM) and the unbundling Goldrush:
    • The share repurchase offer is priced at 815cps, limited to a maximum of 42.5% of shares, and is conditional on a range of items, most notably the resolution to approve delisting Astoria from the JSE and SEM exchanges.
    • In the event of the delisting being approved, Astoria will also unbundle 7.5m Goldrush preference shares (12 GRSP shares for every 100 Astoria shares held) or c.83cps of value (before the SENS announcement) or c.72cps of value as of the date of this note (based on GRSP’s share price).
  • Irrevocable undertakings have been made to vote in favour of all resolutions (59.33% disinterested vote) and not to accept the repurchase offer (57.81% will go “private” with the company’s delisting, i.e. 42.19% of shares are left to accept the cash portion of the share repurchase before the delisting).
  • Given the irrevocables, the pricing of the offer (in line with our ‘fair value’ without a control premium given that control is not changing in this repurchase) and, thus, the likelihood of a positive fairness opinion, we believe it is probable that Astoria’s repurchase, unbundling and delisting will proceed.

Valuation, 12m TP & Implied Return: Delisting Price

  • Given the pricing of the transaction to delist and the probability of its approval, we update our fair value and 12m TP to the transaction price of 887cps or c.9% higher than the share price.
  • Interestingly, this essentially lines up with our Sum-of-the-Parts fair value for Astoria of c.905cps after a 17% HoldCo discount (previously: 16.3%).
Astoria Investments – Q3:25 – Results NoteDownload

Sabvest Capital – H1:25 Results – Apex Drives NAV Growth

Share Code: SBP – Market Cap: R3.6bn – Share Price discount to NAV: 31%

Sabvest Capital – Results Note – H1:25Download

H1:25 Results: Share buy-backs enhance growth

  • Sabvest’s Net Asset Value (NAV) grew +15% y/y versus H1:24 (or +3% versus FY 24), which, when combined with further accretive share buy-backs, saw NAV per share grow +5% to 13882cps (FY 24: 13213cps).
  • H1:25 share buybacks amounted to R69.3m (FY 24: R59.9m), or 735,000 SBP shares at a VWAP of c.9429cps (well below NAV and wonderfully accretive).
  • Importantly, valuation multiples were kept flat during the period, thus providing NAV growth of good quality.
  • Strong growth in Apex Partners and continued momentum in the recovery in ITL Holdings more than offset some disappointing performance in Amicus, Narrowtex (part of SA Bias), and Halewood SA.
  • The dividend was hiked +14% to 40cps (H1:24 – 35cps).

Thoughts: Momentum in H2:25E could rise

  • We expect continued growth from Apex (particularly as it unlocks value from DRA), and we expect ITL Holdings’ and Valemount’s respective performances to pick up momentum through the remaining year.
  • We also expect near-term recoveries in both Amicus (likely) & SA Bias’ Flowmax (likely) with a medium-term upside in Valemount (probable) & Halewood (possible).
  • Overall, though, we expect a good H2:25E performance from the Group’s businesses and their resulting investment values in Sabvest’s H2:25E NAV.

Valuation, 12m TP & Implied Return: Discounted

  • We estimate that the share is currently trading at a c.31% discount to its current 13704cps NAV and—after including a HoldCo discount against this NAV of 10% (unchanged)—we believe that the share’s fair value is around 12334cps (previously: 11798cps).
  • Rolling our post-discount fair value forward, we see the Group’s 12m TP as 14540cps (previously: 14017cps) with an implied return of +53% from these levels.
Sabvest Capital – Results Note – H1:25Download