{"id":681,"date":"2025-08-18T01:01:00","date_gmt":"2025-08-18T01:01:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bluegemresearch.co.za\/?p=681"},"modified":"2025-08-16T11:25:36","modified_gmt":"2025-08-16T11:25:36","slug":"astoria-investments-ltd-h125-results-note-lots-of-dry-powder-on-hand","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/v7l6z8c7j6p.c.updraftclone.com\/?p=681","title":{"rendered":"Astoria Investments Ltd \u2013 H1:25 Results Note \u2013\u00a0Lots of Dry Powder on Hand"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Share Code: ARA \u2013 Market Cap: R490m \u2013 Discount to NAV: c.28<\/em>%<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div data-wp-interactive=\"core\/file\" class=\"wp-block-file\"><object data-wp-bind--hidden=\"!state.hasPdfPreview\" hidden class=\"wp-block-file__embed\" data=\"http:\/\/v7l6z8c7j6p.c.updraftclone.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Astoria-Investments_H1_25_Results-Note.pdf\" type=\"application\/pdf\" style=\"width:100%;height:600px\" aria-label=\"Embed of &lt;strong&gt;Astoria Investments - H1:25 - Results Note&lt;\/strong&gt;.\"><\/object><a id=\"wp-block-file--media-7e8ac8bc-1108-4bd7-9a9d-ef759e52bca4\" href=\"http:\/\/v7l6z8c7j6p.c.updraftclone.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Astoria-Investments_H1_25_Results-Note.pdf\"><strong>Astoria Investments &#8211; H1:25 &#8211; Results Note<\/strong><\/a><a href=\"http:\/\/v7l6z8c7j6p.c.updraftclone.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Astoria-Investments_H1_25_Results-Note.pdf\" class=\"wp-block-file__button wp-element-button\" download aria-describedby=\"wp-block-file--media-7e8ac8bc-1108-4bd7-9a9d-ef759e52bca4\">Download<\/a><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>H1:25 Results: Beyond Diamonds<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Group NAV slipped -3.5% to $59.85 per share (FY 24: $61.99) or down -9% to 1065cps (FY 24: 1171cps) as the continued diamond bear market took the diamond investments from a c.113cps contribution to Group NAV (end of FY 24) to zero.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>If the c.113cps diamond investments are reversed from FY 24\u2019s NAV, the Group\u2019s NAV would have grown slightly (+3% p\/p).<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Beyond diamonds, positive developments include a clean exit from ISA Carstens, strong performances from Leatt Corp and Goldrush, and OIH\u2019s exit from A-Tec. Following the period, OIH repurchased some of Astoria\u2019s shares for R105m in cash.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><a href=\"http:\/\/v7l6z8c7j6p.c.updraftclone.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/2025-08-16-Astoria.png\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\" noreferrer noopener\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"581\" src=\"http:\/\/v7l6z8c7j6p.c.updraftclone.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/2025-08-16-Astoria-1024x581.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-683\" srcset=\"https:\/\/v7l6z8c7j6p.c.updraftclone.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/2025-08-16-Astoria-1024x581.png 1024w, https:\/\/v7l6z8c7j6p.c.updraftclone.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/2025-08-16-Astoria-300x170.png 300w, https:\/\/v7l6z8c7j6p.c.updraftclone.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/2025-08-16-Astoria-768x435.png 768w, https:\/\/v7l6z8c7j6p.c.updraftclone.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/2025-08-16-Astoria-624x354.png 624w, https:\/\/v7l6z8c7j6p.c.updraftclone.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/2025-08-16-Astoria.png 1076w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Commentary: Capital Allocation Options<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Given all the realisations during (and post) the H1:25 period, the Group is currently quite cash flush, and <em>where<\/em> management allocates this capital will be pivotal in future NAV.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Perhaps illustrative of management\u2019s capital allocation intentions is that one of these realisations <em>lowered<\/em> the Group\u2019s significant exposure to OIH (i.e. dropping portfolio concentration) and another was CFD\u2019s in Astoria\u2019s <em>own<\/em> share.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Valuation, 12m TP &amp; Implied Return: More than Priced In<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>We estimate that Astoria\u2019s share is trading at c.28% discount to NAV (Previously: 36%), which includes the partial realisation of OIH, the cash receipt from ISA Carstens and Leatt Corp and Goldrush\u2019s latest share prices (and exchange rates). Cash (&amp; cash equivalent) now forms c.24% of the Group\u2019s NAV.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>With c.24% of Astoria\u2019s NAV is net <em>cash<\/em>, the market is basically paying book value for the Group\u2019s investments and offering investors this net cash for \u201cfree\u201d.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>If we take out our calculated \u201cHoldCo discount\u201d of c.16.3% (15.9%), we arrive at a fair value for Astoria\u2019s shares of c.913cps (Previously: 858cps) or c.16% <em>higher<\/em> than the share price.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Rolling this fair value forward at our Cost of Equity, we arrive at a 12m TP of c.1076cps (Previously: 1020cps) that implies a potential return of c.36% from the current share price.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-file\"><a id=\"wp-block-file--media-7e8ac8bc-1108-4bd7-9a9d-ef759e52bca4\" href=\"http:\/\/v7l6z8c7j6p.c.updraftclone.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Astoria-Investments_H1_25_Results-Note.pdf\"><strong>Astoria Investments &#8211; H1:25 &#8211; Results Note<\/strong><\/a><a href=\"http:\/\/v7l6z8c7j6p.c.updraftclone.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Astoria-Investments_H1_25_Results-Note.pdf\" class=\"wp-block-file__button wp-element-button\" download aria-describedby=\"wp-block-file--media-7e8ac8bc-1108-4bd7-9a9d-ef759e52bca4\">Download<\/a><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Share Code: ARA \u2013 Market Cap: R490m \u2013 Discount to NAV: c.28% H1:25 Results: Beyond Diamonds Commentary: Capital Allocation Options Valuation, 12m TP &amp; Implied Return: More than Priced In Rolling this fair value forward at our Cost of Equity, we arrive at a 12m TP of c.1076cps (Previously: 1020cps) that implies a potential return [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[144],"tags":[149,13,177,153,15,152,60,20,30,16],"class_list":["post-681","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-astoria_investments","tag-astoria-investments","tag-equity-research","tag-goldrush","tag-jan-van-niekerk","tag-jse","tag-piet-viljoen","tag-research","tag-small-cap","tag-small-caps","tag-south-africa"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/v7l6z8c7j6p.c.updraftclone.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/681","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/v7l6z8c7j6p.c.updraftclone.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/v7l6z8c7j6p.c.updraftclone.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/v7l6z8c7j6p.c.updraftclone.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/v7l6z8c7j6p.c.updraftclone.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=681"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/v7l6z8c7j6p.c.updraftclone.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/681\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":688,"href":"https:\/\/v7l6z8c7j6p.c.updraftclone.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/681\/revisions\/688"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/v7l6z8c7j6p.c.updraftclone.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=681"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/v7l6z8c7j6p.c.updraftclone.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=681"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/v7l6z8c7j6p.c.updraftclone.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=681"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}