{"id":466,"date":"2023-08-21T01:01:00","date_gmt":"2023-08-21T01:01:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bluegemresearch.co.za\/?p=466"},"modified":"2023-08-20T08:36:49","modified_gmt":"2023-08-20T08:36:49","slug":"astoria-investments-results-note-durable-performance-cautionary-issued","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/v7l6z8c7j6p.c.updraftclone.com\/?p=466","title":{"rendered":"Astoria Investments \u2013 Results Note \u2013 Durable Performance &#038; Cautionary Issued"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Share Code: ARA \u2013 Market Cap: R604m \u2013 Discount to NAV: 24%<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-file\"><a id=\"wp-block-file--media-1d537a05-7dd7-4a84-9917-7da0754a3dcd\" href=\"http:\/\/v7l6z8c7j6p.c.updraftclone.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/Astoria-Investments_Q2_23-Results-Note.pdf\"><strong>Astoria Investments &#8211; Q2:23 Results Note<\/strong><\/a><a href=\"http:\/\/v7l6z8c7j6p.c.updraftclone.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/Astoria-Investments_Q2_23-Results-Note.pdf\" class=\"wp-block-file__button wp-element-button\" download aria-describedby=\"wp-block-file--media-1d537a05-7dd7-4a84-9917-7da0754a3dcd\">Download<\/a><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Q2:23 Results: Currency and Market Headwinds<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Astoria reported Net Asset Value of $0.748ps (FY 22: $0.827ps) or R14.08ps (FY 22: R14.06ps) with growth in Outdoor Investment Holdings (OIH) offset by lower RACP (i.e. Goldrush) &amp; Leatt Corp share prices. A weaker Rand offset this in the Rand-based NAV but detracted against the USD-based NAV.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Unlisted valuations remain conservative with multiples unchanged.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><a href=\"http:\/\/v7l6z8c7j6p.c.updraftclone.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/2023-August-21-ARA-SOTP.png\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"912\" height=\"501\" src=\"http:\/\/v7l6z8c7j6p.c.updraftclone.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/2023-August-21-ARA-SOTP.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-468\" srcset=\"https:\/\/v7l6z8c7j6p.c.updraftclone.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/2023-August-21-ARA-SOTP.png 912w, https:\/\/v7l6z8c7j6p.c.updraftclone.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/2023-August-21-ARA-SOTP-300x165.png 300w, https:\/\/v7l6z8c7j6p.c.updraftclone.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/2023-August-21-ARA-SOTP-768x422.png 768w, https:\/\/v7l6z8c7j6p.c.updraftclone.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/2023-August-21-ARA-SOTP-624x343.png 624w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 912px) 100vw, 912px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Commentary: Businesses Robust &amp; Investments Degearing<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Importantly\u2014given its 48% of NAV\u2014OIH is trading well, growing both footprint and store-level trading density.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Broadly, underlying businesses are performing &amp;, even those facing headwinds, are trading resiliently and offer upside the moment the broader economy\/ies improve.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Along with existing businesses growing their profits, other potential future fair value moves include both the Family Pet Centre (FPC) and Vehicle Care Group\u2019s (VCG) refined business models showing success. Likewise, Trans Hex Marine\u2019s historic cost should be fairly valued in future results.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>During H1:23, Astoria paid back some of its investment-level debt (we expect this to continue). This adds to NAV &amp; lowers financial risk while freeing capacity to regear for another acquisition (see the cautionary noted below).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Valuation, 12m TP &amp; Implied Return: Under Cautionary\u2026<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Updating Astoria\u2019s NAV to current prices, the share price is trading at a c.24% discount to current NAV (Previously: 34%).<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>If we take out our calculated \u201cHoldCo discount\u201d of c.14.5% (Previously: 14.0%) from this NAV, we arrive at a fair value for Astoria\u2019s shares of c.1213cps (Previously: 1192cps) or c.11% <em>higher<\/em> than the current share price.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Rolling this fair value forward at our Cost of Equity, we arrive at a 12m TP of c.1440cps (Previously: 1422cps) that implies a potential return of c.33% from the current share price.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em><strong>Note<\/strong>: The share is currently trading under a cautionary announcement due to a potential acquisition.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-file\"><a id=\"wp-block-file--media-1d537a05-7dd7-4a84-9917-7da0754a3dcd\" href=\"http:\/\/v7l6z8c7j6p.c.updraftclone.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/Astoria-Investments_Q2_23-Results-Note.pdf\"><strong>Astoria Investments &#8211; Q2:23 Results Note<\/strong><\/a><a href=\"http:\/\/v7l6z8c7j6p.c.updraftclone.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/Astoria-Investments_Q2_23-Results-Note.pdf\" class=\"wp-block-file__button wp-element-button\" download aria-describedby=\"wp-block-file--media-1d537a05-7dd7-4a84-9917-7da0754a3dcd\">Download<\/a><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Share Code: ARA \u2013 Market Cap: R604m \u2013 Discount to NAV: 24% Q2:23 Results: Currency and Market Headwinds Commentary: Businesses Robust &amp; Investments Degearing Valuation, 12m TP &amp; Implied Return: Under Cautionary\u2026 Note: The share is currently trading under a cautionary announcement due to a potential acquisition.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[144],"tags":[146,145,139,13,120,60,30,85],"class_list":["post-466","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-astoria_investments","tag-ara","tag-astoria","tag-discount","tag-equity-research","tag-holdco","tag-research","tag-small-caps","tag-value-investing"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/v7l6z8c7j6p.c.updraftclone.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/466","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/v7l6z8c7j6p.c.updraftclone.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/v7l6z8c7j6p.c.updraftclone.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/v7l6z8c7j6p.c.updraftclone.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/v7l6z8c7j6p.c.updraftclone.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=466"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/v7l6z8c7j6p.c.updraftclone.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/466\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":469,"href":"https:\/\/v7l6z8c7j6p.c.updraftclone.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/466\/revisions\/469"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/v7l6z8c7j6p.c.updraftclone.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=466"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/v7l6z8c7j6p.c.updraftclone.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=466"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/v7l6z8c7j6p.c.updraftclone.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=466"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}