{"id":329,"date":"2021-10-27T01:01:00","date_gmt":"2021-10-27T01:01:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bluegemresearch.co.za\/?p=329"},"modified":"2021-10-26T13:26:14","modified_gmt":"2021-10-26T13:26:14","slug":"renergen-h122-results-approaching-phase-one-production","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/v7l6z8c7j6p.c.updraftclone.com\/?p=329","title":{"rendered":"Renergen &#8211; H1:22 Results &#8211; Approaching Phase One Production"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Share Code: REN \u2013 Market Cap: R3.4bn \u2013 PE: -76.3x \u2013 DY: 0.0%<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-file\"><a href=\"http:\/\/v7l6z8c7j6p.c.updraftclone.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/10\/Renergen_Results-Note_H1_22.pdf\">Renergen &#8211; Results Note &#8211; H1:22<\/a><a href=\"http:\/\/v7l6z8c7j6p.c.updraftclone.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/10\/Renergen_Results-Note_H1_22.pdf\" class=\"wp-block-file__button\" download>Download<\/a><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>H1:22 Results: Sufficiently Capitalised for Phase One<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>Group revenue rose during the period, but rising overheads as the Group ramps up towards Phase One first production in late H2 saw its loss slightly larger than we expected.<\/li><li>OPIC debt, a small share placement, offtake agreements for c.28% of Phase One\u2019s LNG &amp; c.65% of Phase Two\u2019s helium production, &amp; a digital tokenisation mechanism for \u201cprepaid helium\u201d all ensure that the Group is sufficiently capitalized to see Phase One over the line.<\/li><li>CryoVacc has moved into field trials that could see it becoming commercially viable as a standalone business soon.<\/li><li>Finally, the favourable exploration outcomes from Evander have triggered an updated reserve report that management anticipates publishing in Q4:22.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Progress Updates: Numerous Qualitative Updates<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>For a range of updates during the period, refer to our previously published update notes:<ul><li><a href=\"https:\/\/v7l6z8c7j6p.c.updraftclone.com\/?p=295\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Positive Developments<\/a>, &amp;<\/li><\/ul><ul><li><a href=\"https:\/\/v7l6z8c7j6p.c.updraftclone.com\/?p=304\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><em>More<\/em> Positive Developments<\/a>.<\/li><\/ul><\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Forecast, Valuation &amp; Implied Return: Undemanding SOTPs<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>Taking our Phase One &amp; Phase Two DCF\u2019s, Group overheads, factoring in debt, the recent share issue &amp; (potential) future dilution, we arrive at a SOTPs for Renergen that indicates that the stock is worth 5,383cps (previously 5,093cps).<\/li><li>Assuming Cryo-Vacc &amp; Evander collectively add +10% value, this boosts our fair value to 5,922cps (previously 5,603cps).<\/li><li>Finally, rolling this forward at our (nominal) Cost of Equity implies a 12m TP of 6,976cps (previously 6,567cps).<\/li><li>We highlight the likelihood of Phase Two being larger than we anticipate as a risk to our valuation, but we will only update our view after several variables have been resolved.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-file\"><a href=\"http:\/\/v7l6z8c7j6p.c.updraftclone.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/10\/Renergen_Results-Note_H1_22.pdf\">Renergen &#8211; Results Note &#8211; H1:22<\/a><a href=\"http:\/\/v7l6z8c7j6p.c.updraftclone.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/10\/Renergen_Results-Note_H1_22.pdf\" class=\"wp-block-file__button\" download>Download<\/a><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Share Code: REN \u2013 Market Cap: R3.4bn \u2013 PE: -76.3x \u2013 DY: 0.0% H1:22 Results: Sufficiently Capitalised for Phase One Group revenue rose during the period, but rising overheads as the Group ramps up towards Phase One first production in late H2 saw its loss slightly larger than we expected. OPIC debt, a small share [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[100],"tags":[102,101],"class_list":["post-329","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-renergen-ren","tag-ren","tag-renergen"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/v7l6z8c7j6p.c.updraftclone.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/329","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/v7l6z8c7j6p.c.updraftclone.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/v7l6z8c7j6p.c.updraftclone.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/v7l6z8c7j6p.c.updraftclone.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/v7l6z8c7j6p.c.updraftclone.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=329"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/v7l6z8c7j6p.c.updraftclone.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/329\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":331,"href":"https:\/\/v7l6z8c7j6p.c.updraftclone.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/329\/revisions\/331"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/v7l6z8c7j6p.c.updraftclone.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=329"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/v7l6z8c7j6p.c.updraftclone.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=329"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/v7l6z8c7j6p.c.updraftclone.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=329"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}